Roche Limit

The Torygraph keeps peddling the story, generated by an org associated with independent schools, that VAT on these schools will cause such a big net outflow of families that smaller schools will close and state schools will he overwhelmed.

So what will a family do if they can no longer afford £35k per year for each child? Should we imagine that they'll switch directly to a nearby comprehensive school? Nah, not going to happen – they value the social cachet and the contacts the kiddies make to do that. They'll switch to a slightly cheaper school. There will be spaces since these cheaper schools will also have a few levers, and this will happen all the way down to the tiny, cheap independent schools.

The biggest, most expensive schools will survive, even if they have to sell off their equestrian centre or cut funding to their Dubai subsidiary. Small schools fail all the time – two have closed near me in the last few years, and other schools happily absorbed the displaced students.

Schools have spent the last few years nudging up fees and squeezing budgets and sslaries, while they will itemise some charges separately do they won't attract VAT. Building projects and capital investments will attract VAT rebates. So the actual fee increase will be substantially less than 20%, which many families can afford without too much fuss.

So why are the big independent schools fighting so hard? Perhaps the biggest hit will be to the £200-£500k salaries of the heads and bursars? I'm sure they'll survive the imposition of VAT though.